Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission

Job Candidate Talk
Thursday, February 5, 2015 - 11:00
1 hour (actually 50 minutes)
Skiles 006
Dartmouth College
Sir Ronald Ross’ discovery of the transmission mechanism of malaria in 1897 inspired a suite of mathematical models for the transmission of vector-borne disease, known as Ross-Macdonald models. I introduce a common formulation of the Ross-Macdonald model and discuss its extension to address a current topic in malaria control: the introduction of malaria vaccines. Following over two decades of research, vaccine trials for the malaria vaccine RTS,S have been completed, demonstrating an efficacy of roughly 50% in young children. Regions with high malaria prevalence tend to have high levels of naturally acquired immunity (NAI) to severe malaria, leading to large asymptomatic populations. I introduce a malaria model developed to address concerns about how these vaccines will perform in regions with existing NAI, discuss some analytic results and their public health implications, and reframe our question as an optimal control problem.